Saturday, February 21, 2009

Time to dust off the ol' blog for the annual Oscar predictions

So here we are, the night before the Oscars, and I realized I hadn't done my predictions yet. Which, come to think of it, has pretty much been the norm for the last few years.

I briefly considered doing this as a "note" on Facebook (because Facebook has pretty much been where I've stored all my digital life these days), but it just seemed the wrong way to do it. And I know this blog doesn't get too much use any more, and god knows it probably won't see a sudden spike in use after that, but it still seemed like the right place to do it.

So, as is tradition, here is my list of predictions for the 2009 Academy Awards.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)
Frank Langella (Frost / Nixon)
Sean Penn (Milk)
Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)

And the Winner Is...
MICKEY ROURKE! This is a performance that has been raved about ever since the film premiered at festivals last year. If it doesn't go to Rourke, it'll probably go to Penn for Milk, but the story of Rourke's comeback to the film industry is just as compelling as the story of the film he's in, so it's a pretty safe bet.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Josh Brolin (Milk)
Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road)

And the Winner Is...
HEATH LEDGER! This has been a pretty hotly debated category, with a lot of critics looking back to other posthumous winners -- and there haven't been many. In the end, I don't see Ledger getting it so much for his work on The Dark Knight (as much as his performance was great), but as a "Lifetime Achievement Award" kind of thing, given that, you know, he won't be offering any more performances, at all, ever.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Angelina Jolie (Changeling)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River)
Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Kate Winslet (The Reader)

And the Winner Is...
KATE WINSLET! She's cleaned up in a bunch of the pre-Oscar awards (including snagging both Leading Female *and* Supporting Female, for two different films, at one awards ceremony) so she seems like a pretty safe bet. Also, this year's crop of Winslet films may be the last time we get to see her boobies on the screen, as she's recently admitted that she may retire the nude clause in her contract. A sad day...

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Amy Adams (Doubt)
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Taraki P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)

And the Winner Is...
AMY ADAMS! Actually, okay, I don't really have any idea who's going to take this category. If it were me, I'd probably give it Marisa Tomei and her boobies in The Wrestler, but I'm not sure the Academy thinks the same way I do.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E

And the Winner Is...
WALL-E! Come on, this is a film that many critics had pegged for a best-picture nominee. There's no way it doesn't take the Animated Feature award.

ART DIRECTION:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

And the Winner Is...
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON! It's a film that span's the entire life of it's title character (from the day's he's born an old man, to the day he dies as an infant) -- if spanning a character's entire life doesn't give your art direction team enough stuff to work with, you probably hired the wrong team.

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

And the Winner Is...
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON! Fincher's films are always gorgeous. I haven't seen this one yet, but I'm willing to be it lives up to the rest of his work.

COSTUME DESIGN:
Australia
The Curiosu Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road

And the Winner Is...
AUSTRALIA! Too many period pieces to choose from on here, but I'm going to lean towards Baz Luhrmann, as his films tend to be pretty lavish. Though, again, I haven't seen this one, so maybe he decided to go a bit more reserved this time out.

DIRECTING:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost / Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

And the Winner Is...
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE! Is there any pre-Oscar award that this film hasn't won in this category? I made the same call on Brokeback Mountain a few years ago, for the same reason, and was disappointed. Here's hoping I get it right this time.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

And the Winner Is...
MAN ON WIRE! Because...well, because I've heard about it. And it looks pretty cool, actually. I'd watch it.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smilke Pinki
The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306

And the Winner Is...
THE WITNESS - FROM THE BALCONY OF ROOM 306! I have no idea why. But it sounds gripping. Like someone saw something from the balcony of Room 306. Something terrible and dangerous.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
The Baader Meinhof Complex
The Class
Departures
Revanche
Waltz with Bashir

And the Winner Is...
REVANCHE! Because its title sounds like it's in a foreign language.

MAKEUP:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army

And the Winner Is...
HELLBOY II: THE GOLDEN ARMY! Could go to Mr. Button, for making Mr. Pitt look so goddamn old, but I'm siding with the vast array of creatures in Hellboy to take the trophy.

MUSIC (SCORE):
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Defiance
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

And the Winner Is...
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON! I kind of wanted to say The Dark Knight, but that's not an option I guess. C'est la vie.

MUSIC (SONG):
"Down to Earth" (Wall-E)
"Jai Ho" (Slumdog Millionaire)
"O Saya" (Slumdog Millionaire)

And the Winner Is...
"DOWN TO EARTH"! Because it's Peter Gabrial. He rocks.

BEST PICTURE:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost / Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

And the Winner Is...
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE! Because it's won every other best picture category its come across.

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED):
La Maison En Petits Cubes
Lavatory - Lovestory
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up

And the Winner Is...
LAVATORY - LOVESTORY! Because, how can you not love that title?

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Auf Der Strecke (On The Line)
Manon On The Asphalt
New Boy
The Pig
Spielzeugland (Toyland)

And the Winnter Is...
THE PIG! Because, how can you not love that title?

SOUND EDITING:
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Wanted

And the Winner Is...
WALL-E! I still have no idea what the difference is between sound editing and sound mixing, but I think editing is more about the creation of sounds, which is probably way more important in an animated feature.

SOUND MIXING:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Wanted

And the Winner Is...
THE DARK KNIGHT! Because it had lots of sounds mixed together, like whooshes and punches and explosions, and then the Joker laughs at something.

VISUAL EFFECTS:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Night
Iron Man

And the Winner Is...
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON! Because here's a case where subtle actually pays off. It might not be a great big iron suit flying through the air, or Batman on his kickass Batpod, but making Brad Pitt into an 80 year old baby is probably pretty impressive, from a visual effects perspective.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost / Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

And the Winner Is...
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON! Some serious adapting had to go into turning what is essentially a short story into a full length, 3-ish-hour movie, so I figure there will be some tipping of the hat to that sort of work. Plus it's apparently all heartwarming and stuff. Plus, Slumdog is already getting to major awards, no reason to be a dick to Ben Button.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY):
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall-E

And the Winer Is...
MILK! Because it's not easy turning one guy's whole life into a feature length film.

That's it for this year. Tune in on Sunday to see just how far off base I was!